Predicting the Middle East After Iran Attacks Israel

As analyzed by Middle East political observers and in line with the United States' prediction that Iran would attack Israel - on Tuesday night October 1, 2024 local time - all these predictions were proven. Iran made good on its threat by launching over 180 ballistic missiles into Israeli territory (Reuters, October 2, 2024). The Iranian airstrike with hundreds of deadly missiles was the second time after a similar attack in the April 2024 period. As usual, although hundreds of sophisticated missiles launched by Iran managed to enter Israeli territory, they were successfully intercepted by Israel with the help of the United States, its eternal ally.

Source: Anas Baba/AFP

Iran's brutal attack on Israel certainly did not happen without cause and trigger. De facto, Iran attacked Israel because of the accumulation of deep disappointment and resentment. Previously, Israel had attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing 7 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps soldiers including two senior Iranian generals. Israel has also killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh when the charismatic Hamas leader was on Iranian soil, Israel has also killed more than 41 thousand Palestinians in the Israel-Hamas war, most recently Israel has attacked Lebanon both by land and air as a result of the Israel-Hizbullah war. In fact, one of Iran's military figures Abbas Nilforoushan was killed along with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah due to the deadly airstrikes carried out by Israel. These precedents then crystallized into a savings of resentment that then broke out to encourage Iran to dare to attack Israel, which geostrategically, the two have always been contradictory and conflictual.

Responding to Iran's deadly attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Iran had made a big mistake and Israel would retaliate against the Iranian missile attack. More than that, the United States is apparently ready to support Israel in carrying out retaliatory strikes against Iran. Seeing conditions like this, do we still hope that the Middle East regional conflict will not escalate and the turmoil in the region will soon stabilize? It seems not.

The coming days will be increasingly uncertain for the Middle East region. The Israeli-Hamas war, the fierce Israeli-Hizbullah war, the Israeli-Iranian war, the Houthi-Israeli war reinforce the previous premise that in the future the Middle East will heat up. Israel will certainly never remain silent when its sovereignty is attacked, as well as the United States which will certainly carry out all defense activities when Osrael, its closest ally in the Middle East, is attacked by the enemy. In this way, both state and non-state groups that have been against Israel should always be aware of all the worst possibilities that will occur in the future. Israel, which has proven to be very strong militarily, never jokes about making threats. Iran should always be vigilant, Hizbulllah and Hamas should never let their guard down. Israel is very interested in retaliating and eliminating them all.

Although predictably, the Middle East will tend to be turbulent, however, the author still hopes that peace, stability, and tranquility can be created in the enigmatic region. The key is that Israel must be self-aware that the roots of instability and endless wars in the Middle East are Israel's arbitrary attitude towards the Palestinians, the injustice of the UN multilateral organizations that are reluctant to recognize Palestine as an independent and sovereign state and the double standards of the United States in addressing the Palestinian struggle to become an autonomous state that is free to self-determine. Hopefully!