Reading the Quick Count Results of the 2024 Simultaneous Regional Elections

The 2024 simultaneous regional head elections (pilkada) have been held smoothly on Wednesday, November 27, 2024. As a result, several pairs of regional head candidates supported by political forces Prabowo and Jokowi based on the quick count data of several survey institutions are predicted to win the 2024 regional election contest. For example, the Khofifah-Emil pair, which seemed to be relatively far ahead of its competitors in the East Java regional elections, the Luthfi-Yasin pair, which also excelled in the Central Java regional elections, the Dedi-Erwan pair, which won hands down in the West Java regional elections, the Bobby-Surya pair, which was also very powerful in the North Sumatra regional elections. The superiority of Jokowi-Prabowo's heroes in these electoral districts is arguably normal, directly proportional to the predictions and analysis of survey institutions, aka nothing special.

In my opinion, they excelled because the political machines of their supporting parties really worked effectively, as well as the fruit of Jokowi-Prabowo's political support which was quite effective in attracting voters who were fanatical about the figures of Jokowi-Prabowo. However, the superiority of the candidate pairs supported by Prabowo and Jokowi was not followed by their champion candidate pairs in the 2024 Jakarta elections.

Source:kompas.com

Based on provisional quick counts from several credible survey institutions, the Jakarta regional election has the potential to take place in two rounds by bringing together the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair and the Pramono-Rano pair. This is because none of the three pairs of candidates contesting the 2024 Jakarta regional elections won the public support vote of 50 percent plus one. Based on the Kompas R & D quick count data, the vote for Ridwan Kamil-Suswono was 40.02 percent, Dharma-Kun was 10.49 percent, and Pramono-Rano was 49.49 percent. Indicator's data also showed that Ridwan Kamil-Suswono's vote was 39.53 percent, Dharma-Kun was 10.61 percent, and Pramono-Rano was 49.87 percent.

In contrast to the quick count data of Kompas and Indikator, the Indonesian Survey Institute released the quick count results of the Jakarta regional election with Ridwan Kamil-Suswono by 39.29 percent, Dharma-Kun by 10.61 percent, and Pramono-Rano by 50.10 percent. Meanwhile, based on Charta Politika's quick count, the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair amounted to 39.25 percent, Dharma-Kun amounted to 10.60 percent, and Pramono-Rano amounted to 50.15 percent. Thus, there are two possibilities that will occur regarding the results of the 2024 Jakarta elections, namely the elections will take place in one round if referring to the results of the LSI and Charta Politika quick counts. Meanwhile, if we refer to the quick count results of Kompas and Indikator, the 2024 Jakarta elections are likely to take place in two rounds. Everything will be answered after the Jakarta General Election Commission (KPU) announces the results of the official count (real count) of all votes from all polling stations (TPS) on December 16, 2024.

However, whatever it is, if we use the scenarios and predictions of the Kompas Research and Development and Indicators, then for the third time the 2024 Jakarta elections will take place in two rounds after having previously occurred in the 2012 and 2017 elections. The reality of the 2024 Jakarta elections reinforces the predictions of the findings of survey institutions that the 2024 Jakarta elections are likely to take place in two rounds with Ridwan Kamil-Suswono and Pramono-Rano as the final contestants.

The phenomenon of the 2024 Jakarta elections with the Pramono-Rano advantage is actually a very unique political anomaly. Long ago, this pair was predicted to lose to the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair, which was supported by the political power of the palace. However, slowly but surely, with hard work and great political consolidation─for example by embracing socio-cultural groups in Jakarta such as the Betawi Rempug Forum (FBR)─embracing the fanatical supporters of Ahok and Anies Baswedan to become part of the political forces supporting Pramono-Rano─then even though it was only carried alone by PDI-P and later the Hanura Party joined in supporting, the Pramono-Rano pair was able to outperform the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair which was strongly supported by Jokowi-Prabowo. Pramono-Rano's political machine really works effectively and the results are very real. Without preceding the Jakarta KPU, the author is optimistic that the Pramono-Rano pair will likely come out as the winner of the 2024 Jakarta elections. As a national political barometer, Jakarta residents are strongly believed to be rational voters who are intelligent in making political choices.

The superiority of Pramono-Rano reflects the rationality of Jakarta residents who want that in the next five years they want to be led by leaders who have a rational vision and mission, have a commitment to the continuity of work programs with previous leaders, and certainly have emotional and cultural closeness to Jakarta residents, e.g. Jakarta natives, have Jakarta ID cards, love the football club that is the pride of Jakarta residents (Persija), and so on. Thus, the vision of Jakarta Menyala is only a matter of time. Hopefully!