The Future of the Middle East After Israel Attacked Iran

 Finally, it really happened. For real. Israel on October 25, 2024 at night until October 26, 2024 at dawn fulfilled its revenge ambition by attacking Iran, which had previously attacked Israel with ballistic missiles twice (April 14 and October 1, 2024). The Israeli airstrikes, which launched 80 projectiles at Iran, targeted strategic objects such as Iranian military sites or bases and missile factories near the capital of Tehran and Western Iran.

According to data, the Israeli airstrike using ballistic missiles hit the sprawling Parchin military complex near Tehran, damaging three buildings, including two that house fuel storage for ballistic missile engines (Reuters, October 27, 2024). In addition, the Israeli strike reportedly killed at least four Iranian soldiers (The Jakarta Post, October 27, 2024).

Source:AFP/ATTA KENARE

After successfully launching a retaliatory strike against Iran's previous ballistic missile attack, Israel officially announced that its attack on Iran had been completed. For Israel, its attack on Iran was a self-defense exercise in which Israel's attack only targeted military objects and not densely populated areas in stark contrast to Iran's attack on Israel which targeted densely populated Israeli cities.

In response to Israel's retaliatory strike, Iranian authorities said that Iran condemns Israel's attack and that Iran feels entitled and obliged to defend itself. However, Iran realizes that it has a responsibility for the peace and security of the Middle East region. This means that Iran realizes the risk of further escalation if it responds to Israel's attack. However, anything is possible.

World leaders such as the President of the United States, British Prime Minister, German Chancellor hope that Iran will not respond to Israel's counterattack so that conflict escalation does not occur in the Middle East region. The question is, what if then Iran takes the reckless option by carrying out a more devastating counterattack against Israel? The answer is that it is likely that the Middle East region will be trapped in a full-scale war as predicted by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Israel has clearly warned that if Iran retaliates against the Israeli attack, then Iran will pay dearly. This means that Israel will be tougher on Iran. Israel will retaliate against Iran more painfully. If this bad possibility occurs, then in the author's opinion, both Iran and Israel will be involved in an all-out battle whose impact will be very bad for the stability and future of the Middle East region. This has not considered the possibility of proxies and alliances from Iran and Israel intervening if both engage in full-scale war. If all alliances are involved, it can be predicted that the Middle East region will be very complicated. Many sites, buildings, public and military facilities are likely to be destroyed by war. Many human lives, both civilian and military, would also be lost. The role of Gaza and most recently Lebanon is clear evidence of the devastating effects of war escalation.

Now it's up to Iran, will it respond to Israel's attack by attacking the Zionist state as a form of self-defense? Or does Iran prefer to stay silent, passive, and just accept Israel's attacks for the sake of maintaining regional stability? The author hopes that diplomacy and negotiation options that can win all parties can be a wise choice for each party in conflict. Thus, the Middle East region will not fall into the valley of destruction and perdition. Hopefully!