The Instant Impact of Ismail Haniyah's Death and the Future of the Middle East

The death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyah in Tehran, Iran on Wednesday, July 31, 2024─just moments after attending the inauguration of Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian on July 30, 2024─has a serious impact on the political constellation of the Middle East region. Iran, a country that has long been at odds with Israel, responded to Haniyeh's death with a threat that the Persian country would retaliate against Israel.

Iran's tough stance can be understood as a form of Iran's assertiveness that feels crushed by Israel where due to the killing of Ismail Haniyah on Iranian soil, this country is then in the spotlight. Iran is considered to have failed to provide a sense of security─their defense and security are considered fragile. As a result, Iran had to pay dearly for the incident of Ismail Haniyah's death, which then made Iran have to take harsh measures to punish Israel. Threatening statements were made by Iranian leaders that they would retaliate against Israel for crossing the line. Several pro-Palestinian proxies such as Hezbollah, in Lebanon, Houthi in Yemen, and Hamas were also angry at the killing of Ismail Haniyah. They will unite to ignite the fire of resistance against Israel, the occupying country that has killed 39,699 Palestinians since the outbreak of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 (Reuters, August 8, 2024).

Source: Reuters

The killing of Ismail Haniyah inevitably has a significant effect on the increasingly heated military political tension in the Middle East because at the same time Israel, which Iran believes is the brain behind Haniyeh's killing, feels nothing and does not want to be responsible for the death of the Hamas political frontman. Similarly, the United States, an ally of Israel, claimed to know nothing. The impact is that Iran is increasingly resistant, Palestinian proxies are also increasingly militant. They are determined to attack Israel, which is then responded to by Israel and the US who feel ready to face Iranian attacks and Israel-hating military groups. Uncle Sam, led by Joe Biden, even sent F-22 fighter jets to the Middle East in anticipation of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East after the death of Ismail Haniyah and the killing of Hezbollah high commander Fuad Shukr.

And now the world community is waiting for how Iran, Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah realize their threats against Israel and how Israel will respond if Iran and other proxies really attack Israel in total? It will be interesting to see. However, whatever it is, the excesses of Ismail Haniyah's killing then greatly impact the stalling of negotiation efforts towards the achievement of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire, which is expected that the negotiation efforts can then ease the tension between the two parties. But in fact, Hamas is getting more inflamed, Israel is getting more arbitrary and the US is increasingly siding with Israel. In the midst of the bitter conditions of war, some time ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further complicated the conflict by claiming the West Bank, which is Palestinian sovereign territory, as their homeland. A reality that can further worsen conflict and regional stability. Seeing this complicated condition, the author then asks, is there still a future for Israel-Hamas peace? Is there still hope for the Middle East to become a stable region? Will the Hamas-Israel conflict be brought?

The author is very doubtful that the good hopes above can be realized. This is very reasonable due to the fact that each party involved in the conflict has a very deep grudge and political interests. Iran, for example, feels very hurt by Israel's savagery in oppressing the Palestinians where the Jewish state does not want to be selective in killing Palestinians. Whether it is ordinary people or political leaders who have influence in Palestine, sooner or later Israel will finish them off.

This heartache then escalated into a political grudge for Iran so that the country promised to destroy Israel. Iran gained the upper hand when Russia, its closest ally, was also ready to step in to help Iran if needed by the Shia country in realizing its retaliation against Israel. Furthermore, Iran is apparently not the only actor with an interest, military political factions such as Hamas, Houthi, Hamas also have the same interest. They also have an interest in eliminating Israel, which is considered to have arbitrarily committed genocide against Palestinian Muslims. Not inferior to pro-Palestinian groups, Israel also has an interest in defending itself from attacks and threats from parties that are considered terrorists, troublemakers and endanger their security and defense. This complexity has always been a trigger for tension and instability in the Middle East. We can't imagine what will happen if Iran actually realizes its intention to attack Israel, which will certainly be followed by attacks from militant groups such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas and Israeli counterattacks which will certainly be assisted by its allies. Destruction and damage will be the result.